Generic competition has historically been key to reducing prices and increasing access to medicines. Generic drug development processes, from active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) production to finished drug registration, typically takes at least four years with most companies beginning development work once there is certainty of demand. Without market demand security, generic manufacturers may not be willing to invest in development of promising pipeline antitretrovirals (ARVs) and new chemical entitities, even if voluntary licences are in place.
Projecting the use of ARVs is key to providing generic manufacturers with guidance and motivation for timely generic development of pipeline ARVs for use in developing countries.
Timely generic development of new drugs may help in the prompt adoption of appropriate drugs in treatment recommendations. Moreover, projections guide our industry partners on access strategies, prioritization and building capacity, thereby ensuring industry readiness for timely availability of adequate amounts of recommended drugs to help achieve international treatment targets. They also provide broad support to the HIV community and support financing agencies in identifying drugs that may optimise spend on treatment. Policymakers, procurement agencies, regulatory agencies and other public health bodies also rely on these analyses to plan their policies and place new drugs on the market.
For the Medicines Patent Pool, projections are needed to engage originator companies into licensing their pipeline ARVs, and facilitate decision-making by generic manufacturers for seeking licences and investing in development, production and regulatory approval of needed ARV formulations.
The MPP and the World Health Organization (WHO) prepare joint projections on the use of antiretroviral medicines in developing countries. We work together to pool respective information and insights from our partners. We review epidemiology data from UNAIDS and model the use and uptake of drugs based on, among other factors:
Experts who have worked with us on these projections are associated with World Health Organization, UNAIDS, Avenir Health and University of British Colombia.
MPP-WHO’s projection methodology is available for all to review, with methods and results shown both here (see below) and on the WHO website. Notably, the projections have been published in the peer-reviewed journal PLOS ONE which is openly accessible. Our projections have been presented at multiple international meetings, including IAS and the Joint WHO/UNAIDS annual consultations with manufacturers and partners.
We update our projections annually and publish them on our website. Read our published studies and presentations on our methodology and findings below:
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health/MPP study in peer-reviewed journal PLOS ONE estimating that savings of its licensing agreements for antiretrovirals (ARVs) to treat HIV in low- and middle-income countries could reach US$ 2.3 billion by 2028 – May 2017
WHO/MPP joint forecast presentation prepared for WHO/UNAIDS’s AIDS Medicines and Diagnostics Service (AMDS) event – March 2017
WHO/MPP’s joint work on forecasting the use of antiretrovirals in low and middle-income countries, published in peer-reviewed journal PLOS ONE – October 2016
WHO/MPP forecast excerpts from the Joint WHO/UNAIDS Meeting with Manufacturers and Partners on Global ARV Demand Forecast – March 2016
Presentation prepared for the International AIDS Conference – July 2015
Presented at WHO/UNAIDS Annual meeting with Pharmaceutical Companies and Stakeholders – March 2015
Press and Media
The Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) is a United Nations-backed public health organisation working to increase access to and facilitate the development of life-saving medicines for low- and middle-income countries. Through its innovative business model, MPP partners with civil society, governments, international organisations, industry, patient groups, and other stakeholders to prioritise and license needed medicines and pool intellectual property to encourage generic manufacture and the development of new formulations.
To date, MPP has signed agreements with 22 patent holders for 13 HIV antiretrovirals, one HIV technology platform, three hepatitis C direct-acting antivirals, a tuberculosis treatment, a cancer treatment, four long-acting technologies, a post-partum haemorrhage medicine, three oral antiviral treatments for COVID-19 and 16 COVID-19 technologies.
MPP was founded by Unitaid, which continues to be MPP’s main funder. MPP’s work on access to essential medicines is also funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), Government of Canada, the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) and the Government of Flanders. MPP’s activities in COVID-19 are undertaken with the financial support of the Japanese Government, the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs, the German Agency for International Cooperation, and SDC.